Who’s got the goods to reclaim their crown? Cheltenham champions focus…

Last year’s champions all look set to arrive at Cheltenham 2026 to defend their titles… and all with targets on their back… some battle‑scarred but battle‑ready… with others seemingly struggling to carry the weight of expectation…

I’ve spent years dissecting Festival form and patterns, and in this piece I’ll separate genuine double-champion contenders from headline‑friendly pretenders…

Which of last year’s champions can do it again, and which will be exposed when the tapes go up?

And remember… I’m not answering whether I think they will they win the race again… I’m answering whether I think they can they win the race again… the ‘will they win the race‘ will come when final decs are in and I’ve pulled together my full members analysis…

…right now I’m not looking to force any bets from this analysis, it’s more a case of positioning my mind for next week and continuing to sift through the noise…

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Who’s got the goods to reclaim their Cheltenham crown?

🏆 Champion Hurdle

🗓️ Tuesday 10th March – 4:00 Cheltenham

🏇 2025 winner: GOLDEN ACE (J Scott)

🔢 Current price: 13/2

Can she land back to back Champion Hurdles?

A lucky winner of the Champion Hurdle last year? Probably.

A fortunate winner of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle this season? Possibly.

But… she stays on her feet and when others falter she’s waiting in the wings to pick up the pieces… she’s only finished out of the first two on three of her 15 starts and she’s nothing if not a solid and reliable mare… one who also holds a strong Cheltenham form line of… 1311 (3/4)… which includes wins at the last two Festivals (2025 Champion Hurdle & 2024 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle)…

Not hard to see her running her usual solid and reliable race when she lines up to defend her crown, but she probably needs others to under-perform if she is to win back to back Champion Hurdles… which in truth, isn’t impossible…

So…

Can GOLDEN ACE land back to back renewals of the Champion Hurdle?

Far from out of the realms of possibility that she lands a second Champion Hurdle… but as things stand, I’d be leaning on the side of NO, it’s unlikely…

SP stats for previous winners running in the Champion Hurdle (since 2020)…

Previous winners | SP <4/1 = 5/12, 2p

Previous winners | SP 4/1+ = 0/20, 6p

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🏆 Queen Mother Champion Chase

🗓️ Wednesday 11th March – 4:00 Cheltenham

🏇 2025 winner: MARINE NATIONAL (B Connell)

🔢 Current price: 5/2

Can he land back to back QMCC’s?

Won last year’s renewal by 18-lengths, taking his Cheltenham form to 2 from 2 in the process, having also won the Supreme in 2023… he finished 2^nd at Leopardstown last time out in the Dublin Chase but he filled the same spot in 2025 before coming on and winning this, and I suspect he’ll have improved for the outing again this year… Leopardstown possibly not the ideal track for him anyway, as he is 222351 (1/6, 4p) there, compared to 11112111 (7/8, 1p) at all other tracks… and it’s not hard to think he’ll show a much higher level of performance in the QMCC (compared to his last run at Leopardstown)…

So…

Can MARINE NATIONAL land back to back renewals of the QMCC?

YES. A major player again and has to enter calculations…

SP stats for previous winners running in the QMCC (since 2020)…

Previous winners | SP <2/1 = 4/7, 1p

Previous winners | SP 2/1+ = 1/26, 7p

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🏆 Stayers Hurdle

🗓️ Thursday 12th March – 3:20 Cheltenham

🏇 2025 winner: BOB OLINGER (H De Bromhead)

🔢 Current price: 7/1

Can he land back to back Stayers Hurdles?

Only seen once since winning this last year, when running 2nd behind a race-fit TEAHUPOO in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown… plenty reason to think he’ll come on for that run and that this has been his main target for season. He comes here an unbeaten 4 from 4 at Cheltenham, 3 of those coming at Festival, and he ran close enough to his peak RPR figure last time out against TEAHUPOO to suggest he’s not yet on the downward slope… and it’s not hard to see him go well again in this…

So…

Can BOB OLINGER land back to back renewals of the Stayers Hurdle?

He needs to be given plenty consideration as he tries to defend his crown. The Stayers Hurdle used to be a race that suited horses aged 9yo or younger, and if you look at the overall stats in the race for those aged 10yo+, they don’t make for the best reading… 2/56, 7p | 42% below exp… however, those two winners came in two of the last three renewals, BOB OLINGER himself winning as a 10yo last year, and it could just be that the race is changing slightly, with regards to the profile of the winner… I’d still, however, be a little cool on the chances of horses aged 11yo+ in the Grade 1 races at the Cheltenham Festival… that group has returned stats of… 2/99, 13p | 67% below exp… and the percentage call might just be to lean on the side of NO, he may well just find some younger legs a bit too strong for him at the business end of the race this year…  

SP stats for previous winners running in the Stayers Hurdle (since 2020)…

Previous winners | SP <11/2 = 7/15, 4p

Previous winners | SP 11/2+ = 0/11, 2p

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🏆 Ryanair Chase

🗓️ Thursday 12th March – 4:00 Cheltenham

🏇 2025 winner: FACT TO FILE (W Mullins)

🔢 Current price: EVENS

Can he land back to back Ryanair Chases?

Mixed fortunes in his 4-runs since blitzing the field by 9-lengths in last year’s renewal of the Ryanair, but he was right back to his best last time out when landing the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown by 5-lengths… he brings a rock solid Cheltenham Festival form line to the table of… 112 (2/3, 1p)…  and he’s yet to finish out of the first two when racing over trips of between 2m3f – 2m5.5f, with a form line over such trips of… 1212111 (5/7, 2p)… and he’s quite clearly the one to beat in the Ryanair Chase…

So…

Can FACT TO FILE land back to back renewals of the Ryanair Chase?

YES. The 9yo is still very much a horse at the top of his game, ticks all of my Race Trends for the Ryanair and fits the profile previous Willie Mullins winners of this race, with all 6 of the Mullins winners of the race meeting the following angle… 7yo-9yo | 2-3 starts in season | Won or placed LTO… for race form of… (since 2016) 147111811 (6/9)… Mullins horses in that form line that were the top-rated horse on official ratings returned a form line of… 11111 (5/5)… FACT TO FILE also meets that tighter filter… and as things stand it’s tricky to level any real negatives against him reclaiming his crown…

SP stats for previous winners running in the Ryanair Chase (since 2020)…

Previous winners | SP <3/1 = 1/3, 2p

Previous winners | SP 3/1+ = 1/15, 2p

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🏆 Gold Cup

Friday 13th March – 4:00 Cheltenham

2025 winner: INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (G Cromwell)

Current price: 14/1 8/1

Can he land back to back Cheltenham Gold Cups?

Has done the best part of nothing since winning the race last year and on the face of things it’s not easy to confidently think he’s going to bounce back with a big effort here, based on what he’s shown so far this season… although it is worth noting that he didn’t exactly come into last year’s festival in bouncing form, and that didn’t stop him streaking away to Gold Cup glory… he’s also 2 from 2 at Cheltenham (which came at the last 2 festivals) and 111 (3/3) over trips of 3m1f+… again, that form line includes his 2 Festival wins and an argument could be made that he simply needs a proper stamina test… with his distance splits over fences reading… trips of 3m1f+ = 111 (3/3)… compared to… trips of <3m1f = 549F937522 (0/10, 2p)… also worth noting that his 3 starts since winning this last season have come at Leopardstown (X2) and Punchestown (X1), tracks where he has combined form of 0/9, 1p (the placed effort he was beaten 15L in 2nd)… away from those two tracks he is… 5/9, 1p… so again, his 3 starts since winning this do put a question mark over him, but it could simply be that the trips and tracks really don’t suit him… and it’s not absolutely out of the question that the 3m2.5f of the Gold Cup trip, as well as the track itself, are absolutely bang ideal for him…

So…

Can INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN land back to back renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

YES, he absolutely can… whether he will is another question altogether, and it’s hard to put his 3 efforts so far this season completely out of your mind… but…

Could he just be a horse that comes alive at Cheltenham?

Could he be a horse that really doesn’t handle Leopardstown and Punchestown?

Does he just really need a proper staying test to spark him to life?

In theory the answer to all three of those questions could be yes… and that’s before factoring in that he may also just be a horse that hates the deep mid-winter months and loves the spring/autumn months… his monthly splits reading… Dec-Feb = 3594394F (0/8, 0p)… compared to… Mar-Nov = 1141112275 (5/10, 2p)… so he’s a horse of two halves… with his recent form bordering on desperate… but his own profile suggesting those runs can be explained, and that winning a second Gold Cup is far from a forlorn hope…

SP stats for previous winners running in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (since 2020)…

Previous winners | SP <7/2 = 5/13, 2p

Previous winners | SP 7/2+ = 0/17, 7p

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Champions can and do repeat… but it’s not easy and ideally you want form, prep and profile all stacking up neatly and playing with you, not against you.

FACT TO FILE looks the ‘obvious’ one to go in again… whilst GOLDEN ACE may again be looking for some ‘help’ from the racing gods if she is to land her second Champion Hurdle… the other three – MARINE NATIONAL, BOB OLINGER and INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN – I’d probably have sitting somewhere between those two stalls…

We’ll soon see which of the 2025 champions goes in again in 2026…

Ben (NTF)

p.s.

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