Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 4th, 5th & 6th July
Somehow it’s been a month since my last ‘Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes‘ post…
How the hell did that happen?!?!
Well to be fair to myself I was back in Scotland for the past two weeks… with a family wedding as the main reason for the trip… good to catch up with some family members I’ve not seen for a while and my uncle supplied me with plenty of drinks at the wedding dance, as thanks for giving him this year’s National Winner 🍻🥃🥳
Before that trip I was tied up with all things Royal Ascot (if you still want to grab my notes from this year’s meeting you can get them HERE>>>)…
So I guess that’s where the past month has disappeared to… 🤷
Back in the normal NTF groove now though and ready to crack back on with the next set of ‘Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 4th, 5th & 6th July
📆 Friday 4th July
⭕ 5:10 Doncaster – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 3rd – PAPA COCKTAIL
This 6yo is now on a losing run of 14 but the upshot of that is the fact he’s now operating off marks in the low 60’s… running here off OR 61, 13lbs below his last and highest winning mark and a full 22lbs below his peak rating… despite adding to his increasing losing run with this 3rd of 12 he has run well on 3 of his last 4 starts, only disappointing at Carlisle at the end of May on unsuitable Good to Soft ground, and there’s been plenty signs, including this effort, that he’s on the verge of getting back to winning ways before too long… he’s worth keeping on the radar over the coming weeks and he’d be of interest if lining up under his PC… OR 74 or less | C4 level or less | 6f-7f | Apr-Aug | DSLR 25 or less = 3521111 (4/7, 2p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 1:50 Sandown – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – DARVEL
Class 4 races have always been above this Dark Angel geldings’ level and this 3rd of 7 took his record at C4 level+ to… 0/14, 2p… he wasn’t, however, beaten far and he did have the rest of the field comfortably held in behind and his current mark of OR 66 (he went down 1lb from OR 67 for this run) is one he should be up to winning from, given he’s previously won off marks as high as OR 70 & 72… I have his PC as… Turf 1m Hcps | C5 or less | OR 72 or less = 915731923137011 (5/15, 3p – all 5 Hcp wins)… and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he takes a small step down in class…
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⭕ 8:35 Beverley – 7.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 6th – ELETTARIA
John Wainwright’s mare ran better than the bare finishing position suggests… she was starting to come with a bit of a rattle as they approached the final couple of furlongs only to find one of those ahead of her starting to back-peddle out of things and cause her to check her momentum a touch, meaning she had to switch to the inside and try and get the revs going again… in a race like this that was enough to see her miss out on a slice of the action at the business end and she had to settle for an eventual 6th of 11… she isn’t the easiest to win with but she is on a winning mark at present – OR 49, down 1lb from OR 50 for this effort – and has been running well on recent starts… she’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 51 or less | C6 | 7f-7.5f on a RH or Straight track | Good to Firm or AW | DSLR 25 or less = 6313311 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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📆 Saturday 5th July
⭕ 3:50 Haydock – 6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – JUAN LES PINS
The 6yo is worth a big upgrade on the bare form here as he couldn’t get the gaps when he needed them and then met interference as the race properly started to click into top gear, the result of that being he all but found himself at the back of the pack as they entered the final furlong… he’s winless in his last 21 starts but he’s incredibly well-handicapped at present off OR 80, 11lbs below his last and highest winning mark, and now we are in in his prime months period he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 91 | June-Oct | Straight-RH tracks | DSLR 42 or less = 51111112513 (7/11, 2p – all 7 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:05 Beverley – 1m2f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – UP THE JAZZ
This was the first time Richard Fahey’s 4yo had his Prime Conditions since winning at Wolverhampton last November and he produced his best run since then as a result… he was only shuffled up 1lb for this effort to OR 74, which is a mark he can win from, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 74 or less | C5 or less Hcps | 7f+ | DSLR 42 or less = 21211 (3/5, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 7:42 Carlisle – 1m3.5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 6th – RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE
This 7yo is far from a prolific winner, with this effort taking his career tally to 2 wins from 42 starts… there were, however, signs of life on his last start at Hamilton and this 6th of 12 is easy to excuse due to the Soft ground being against him (now 0/10, 4p on Soft & Heavy)… he was dropped 1lb to OR 65 for this run, putting him 8lbs below his last and highest winning mark and 18lbs below the mark he ran second off in the 2021 Musselburgh Gold Cup, and he’s clearly on a mark he’s more than capable of winning from… and whilst he may not be one to hang on to for too long he is worth keeping on the radar over the next few weeks… if he’s going to be winning again it’s likely to be during the height of the summer… I have PC for him as… OR 73 or less | C4 or less Turf Hcps over 1m3f-1m6f | G/S+ | June-Aug = 211 (2/3, 1p – both career wins)…
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📆 Sunday 6th July
⭕ 1:45 Ayr – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 3rd – STASH THE CASH
This Profitable gelding has started to run into a bit of form again now that he’s slipped back to a competitive mark, running here off OR 70, which is 1lb below his last and highest winning mark… he’s a horse that enjoys a bit of cut underfoot so the Good to Soft ground he met with here won’t have been an issue for him and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he meets with the following… C5 or less 5f Hcps | OR 71 or less | Good or softer = 3112531 (3/7, 2p – all 3 career wins)… with absolute PC perhaps coming when you add in ‘undulating tracks’… 1121 (3/4, 1p)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
The Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a major portion of my own private notes for the flat game…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members have exclusive access to…
The horses covered in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss them when they rock up on the racetrack under their Prime Conditions…
You can also add them to your own tracker tool… if you don’t yet use one then I’d recommend either of the following two sites…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can find all previous Handicap Sleeper Notes posts by heading to the main blog menu HERE>>>
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STASH THE CASH is going to be a typical Easterby horse that pops up at a good price. Can’t wait 😋
Let’s hope so Tristan 🤞
Hopefully get to cash in on him soon enough…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Nice to see you back Ben, added to tracker…hopeful…howay ya hewers.. ! best regards from Durham.
Cheers John, happy to be back in the regular swing of things 😁🏇
Ben (NTF)