Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 9th & 10th May
Time to get the free NTF Blog up and running again for the summer… now I’m properly back in the groove for 2025 NTF Summer Members Service…
During the long hot summer months (🤞) I’m going to provide you with my ‘Handicap Sleeper Notes’ from the weekend of racing that has just slid into the form book…
Many readers have already accessed the latest FREE NTF Handicap Sleepers Guide ‘12 Handicap Sleepers for the 2025 Flat Season‘ which explains the concept of ‘Handicap Sleepers‘…
If, however, you are yet to pick up that free NTF guide then HEAD TO THIS PAGE and pick up your own copy…
The notes I’ll be posting here on a weekly basis make up a large percentage of my own private notes for the flat game. They also serve as the foundation for identifying ‘Prime Condition’ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets I provide full NTF members with…
I produce Stats Sheets for NTF Members roughly 4 or 5 times a week throughout the Summer AND National Hunt services… and the horses covered in this post will be highlighted to members so that they don’t miss any of them when they hit the track and have their Prime Conditions to shoot for…
Now for the first Handicap Sleeper notes of 2025…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 9th & 10th May
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🗓️ Friday 9th May
⭕ 1:30 Chester – 7.5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 8th – PERSUASION
This was a better effort than it looked as nothing got into this from out the back (he was ridden ‘held up towards rear’), with the first four home posting in-running comments of… ‘chased leaders’, ‘prominent’, chased leaders’ & ‘chased leaders’… David Barron’s 8yo did make some progress between 1f & 2f from home but there was simply too much for him to do and he never landed any sort of a blow. He ran here off OR 91, which is 2lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 93 and 5lbs below his high place mark of OR 96, so he’s still got wiggle room on the handicapping front and his win at Musselburgh last time out showed he can still very much get the job done when conditions are in his favour… he’s worth keeping on the radar and looking out for getting his PC… 7f turf races round a bend | OR 93 | Class 2 or less = 811332213911 (5/12, 5p – all 5 career wins)…
🏇 12th – SPIRIT GENIE
Another that was held up out the back and he pretty much stayed there throughout the race… he won’t have been at home in the 14-runner field anyway as all his wins have come in fields of 11 or less and he’s now 0/10, 1p in fields of 12 or more… not a wasted effort, however, as he went down to OR 86 for the run and he’s now below his last and highest win mark of OR 88 (the mark he ran off in this race)… he’s not had his PC on any of his 4 starts so far this season, but the upshot of that has been that he’s now slipped down to a mark where he should be competitive again and I’ll be looking out for him under the following… OR 88 or less | May-Nov | Turf races with fields of 11 or less = 1111212 (5/7, 2p – all 5 career wins)…
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⭕ 4:10 Chester – 1m4.5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 6th – OMAN
This was first run of the season for the 7yo, but the 12-runner field wasn’t ideal for him as he’s a much better horse in smaller fields… all his wins have come in fields of 8 or less and he’s now 0/15, 1p in fields of 9 or more… he’s on a winnable mark at present, he was dropped to OR 72 for this effort, which puts him 15lbs below his high win mark of OR 87, and connections should be able to find better opportunities for him than this… I have his PC as… OR 87 or less | Turf C3 or less | Flat/Slightly Undulating tracks | 1m2f-1m6.5f | Fields of 8 or less = 132111 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 8:10 Nottingham – 1m0.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 3rd – BELTANE
The 6yo is handicapped to be winning at present… running here off OR 62 and being dropped 1lb to OR 61 for the effort, which is a hefty 16lbs below his last and highest winning handicap mark of OR 77… and he ran a solid enough race under his PC here… C5 Turf Hcps over 7.5f-1m0.5f | OR 77 or less | flat-slightly Und tracks = 33921231 (2/8, 5p – both Hcp wins)… adding another placed effort to his PC form line with this 3rd of 8… Mark Walford’s Flat & A/W runners haven’t really, however, started to click yet this year and since the 1st of Jan this year they’ve returned stats of… 1/45, 4p | -£26.00 – 69% below exp… which isn’t actually unusual for the Walford runners as his peak period with his turf runners, in recent seasons, has come in the May-July period… M Walford | Turf 3yo+ & 4yo+ Hcps in May-July | SP 10/1 or less = (since 2021) 19/113 | 17% S/R | +£26.73 – W&P 44/113 | 39% S/R – 3% below exp… and BELTANE looks one that can strike now that we have reached the period where Walford generally starts having winners on the turf…
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⭕ 7:30 Ripon – 6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – SHOWTIME MAHOMES
Will come on for this outing as he’s now 0/6, 3p on his starts off a break of 43-days or more… he’s handicapped to be winning right now off his mark of OR 67, which is 1lb below his last winning mark and 10lbs below his highest winning mark, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… C3 or less | OR <78 | Flat-Slightly Und tracks | DSLR <43 | carrying 9-11 or less = 51621594112 (4/11, 2p – all 4 turf wins)…
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⭕ 8:05 Ripon – 1m2f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – BAY DREAM BELIEVER
Another Mark Walford horse that’s on/around a winnable handicap mark and coming into form for the yards ‘hot’ period of the season… the 6yo mare had Prime Conditions to shoot for here… OR 59 or less | Handicaps in May-Aug | G/S or quicker | DSLR 16 or less = 21184212 (3/8, 3p – all 3 career wins)… and she only found an in form improver – MARINER – a length and a bit too good for her come the line… she was put up 1lb for this effort to OR 60, but that should still be a manageable mark if other conditions are in her favour…
🗓️ Saturday 10th May
⭕ 2:40 Ascot – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 9th – JUMBY
The pace was drawn middle to high in this straight-track blast and JUMBY was always likely to be inconvenienced by his stall 5 starting position… which is exactly how it turned out as he was never able to land any sort of blow at any stage of this… the upside to his effort, however, is the fact he’s been dropped 3lbs to OR 97 and that’s a mark that makes him look very attractively handicapped at present… his 3 runs this season have all come in handicap company so it looks like connections have, rightly so, switched attention from Group races back to Handicaps and he should be competitive now he’s down to OR 97… I have his Handicap PC as… OR 105 or less | 6f-7f Hcps | Good+ | carrying 9-08 or less = 93313013 (2/8, 4p – both Hcp wins)… the two un-placed efforts in that form line came when he was poorly drawn…
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⭕ 4:15 Nottingham – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – HAYMAKER
First run of the season for the 6yo and this was a solid effort despite being restless in the stalls and coming out of the stalls awkwardly… he was beaten less than a length in 5th but the handicapper must have been feeling generous as he was dropped 1lb to OR 84 for the effort… that’s puts him 1lb below his last and highest win mark of OR 85 and he’s worth looking out for under similar conditions… OR 85 or less | C3 or less straight track Hcps | Good+ | May – Aug = 511111 (5/6 – all 5 career wins)… he’s a consistent type when his Prime Conditions are met…
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⭕ 3:20 Haydock – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – ABDUCTION
The 7yo was unlucky not to collect the win here as he met trouble at the furlong pole and that allowed his better positioned stable-mate – ORIENTAL PRINCE – to get enough of a buffer to hold him off… he was well-handicapped coming into this and the 2lb rise to OR 78 still leaves him on a mark where he can be competitive off, with his last and highest win mark being OR 87… these were his PC… OR 87 or less | LH tracks over 6f-7.5f | G/S or quicker (or AW) | Race worth <13k = 7/17, 4p – all 7 career wins… and he’s worth keeping on the radar for a similar opening in the coming weeks/months…
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⭕ 6:00 Leicester – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 7th – MRS TRUMP
This sprint favoured those drawn in the bottom half… with the first 3 home all drawn 7 or lower and 4 of the first 5 home were also drawn 7 or lower… MRS TRUMP was up in stall 12 so the draw wasn’t ideal for her, and neither was the 14-runner field… all her wins have come in fields of 11 or less and she’s now 0/9, 2p in fields of 12+… she was dropped 2lbs to OR 52 for this effort, which puts her 3lbs below her last and highest win mark of OR 55… and she’s worth looking out for getting her PC in coming weeks… her PC being… C6 Turf Hcps | OR 55 or less | Fields of 11 or less = 3122161 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
When the horses listed above are scheduled to run AND meet their Prime Conditions, they will be highlighted to full NTF Members in the NTF Stats Sheets>>>
You can, of course, add these horses to your own trackers to avoid missing out when they next hit the track…
Both HorseRaceBase (Free 7-day trial HERE) and GeeGeez (£1 month trial HERE) offer excellent tracker tools and I thoroughly recommend both…
I take detailed notes on Handicap Sleepers on a daily basis during the Summer and Autumn months and they are a vital part of the NTF Members Stats Sheets, as well as being the bedrock for my own personal betting strategy…
Hopefully some of the (Weekend) Handicap Sleepers I post here on the free blog land themselves in the winners’ enclosure at juicy prices over the coming weeks and months…
There were some excellent hits from the notes last season and I’d be confident of more of the same this time round…
And again, if you are yet to pick up my FREE Handicap Sleepers Guide, then simply click the following link and get your own copy today…
>>>12 Handicap Sleepers for the Flat (FREE NTF Handicap Sleepers Guide)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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